I recently passed my Statistics class in my game design degree, so I decided to fire up Excel to calculate Double or Nothing’s best probable statistics so I can push buttons in the most efficient way possible. Here are my results:
This chart represent the statistical game form of “everything that can happen in the game”.
0x Is actually the decision not to play the game, an actual possibility. You gain nothing, but it happens 100% of the time if you decide to.
For 1x, since you win half the time, and winning gives you 25 Units, your Net Gain Proportion is essentially half of your gain. I rounded it all down assuming Units aren’t awarded rounded up in these equations.
This actually introduces a bell curve up to 1.96x or 24 Units of your gains. The recommended strategy is stopping at 3x or 4x since that’s effectively close to this curve to double your total winnings.
In plain English, if you attempt to always double until you hit 20x, then ALWAYS cash that out, you will get 26,214,375 Units. However, once you spend 13,107,187 Units attempting it, you should have gotten it statistically speaking.
In short, I proven that anyone that goes above 5x is a dummy.